Broker Check

Silverleaf Wealth Management - Omaha, NE

 

12801 Pierce Street, Suite 100
Omaha, NE 68144

(402) 934-7200

Blog

Monday, October 15, 2018

After several months of historic calm, stocks sold off sharply last week. Rising interest rates and trade war fears were cited as the primary causes of the sell-off that caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 1300...

 

Monday, October 8, 2018

We continue to favor the United States and emerging markets (EM) over developed foreign markets for global equity allocations. We see the U.S. economy as the primary driver of our forecast for 3.8% global gross domestic product (GDP)...

 

Monday, October 1, 2018

Investors endured a flurry of trade headlines and emerging market turmoil in the third quarter, but that didn’t slow down U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 Index rose 7.2% during what has historically been the most volatile quarter of the...

 

Monday, September 24, 2018

The Dow joined the S&P 500 in reaching fresh new highs last week. The record came after a drought lasting nearly eight months. The blue chip index has lagged the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite this year amid escalating trade...

 

Monday, September 17, 2018

Will midterm elections drive mayhem in the markets? The upcoming midterm elections promise to be among the more interesting in recent decades. The Republicans can take comfort in elections generally being about “…the...

 

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Monday, September 10, 2018

Are emerging markets (EM) washed out? Last week the MSCI Emerging Markets Index officially sank 20% from its peak in late January. This prompted many bearish headlines, such as “Emerging Markets Slide into Bear Market amid...

 

Tuesday, September 4, 2018

S&P GICS sectors to undergo a significant makeover later this month. Effective September 28, S&P Dow Jones Indices will make significant changes to its Global Industrial Classification Standard—referred to as GICS. Index provider...

 

Monday, August 27, 2018

Second quarter earnings season was outstanding by many measures. The numbers were strong even without the boost from the new tax law, while guidance was generally positive despite tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. In this...

 

Monday, August 20, 2018

The Turkish currency crisis is threatening an otherwise favorable EM outlook. Emerging market (EM) equities have experienced significant selling pressure this month amid the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China and the...

 

Monday, August 13, 2018

The bull market continues to defy the skeptics and is now nearing a major milestone. On August 22, 2018, this bull market can overtake the bull market of the 1990s as the longest ever. From tariffs to trade wars to inflation to a...

 

Monday, July 30, 2018

Active management may be poised for a comeback. During the past several years, it’s been difficult for active managers to outperform equity benchmarks.There are a number of reasons for that, including the strength of the market,...

 

Monday, July 23, 2018

Second quarter earnings season is underway and may be another good one. Consensus estimates are calling for a 21% year-over-year increase in S&P 500 Index earnings for the quarter, setting up a second straight quarter of 20% or higher...

 

Monday, July 16, 2018

The current environment looks favorable for strong earnings and stock gains. We do expect volatility, but steady economic growth provides a strong backdrop and the potential for opportunity. The first half of 2018 saw the return of...

 

Monday, June 25, 2018

Escalating trade tensions have made for a difficult investing environment. This is not news to anyone at this point. But investors’ angst was ratcheted higher last week after the Trump administration played its next...

 

Monday, June 18, 2018

Capital investment is accelerating, a trend we believe should continue. One of the most encouraging aspects of the U.S. economy currently is that capital spending is accelerating just as some tailwinds are starting to kick in. As we...

 

Monday, June 11, 2018

When will value have its day in the sun? The growth style’s historic run of outperformance has continued this year, despite the emergence of several drivers that have traditionally served as catalysts for value stock...

 

Monday, June 4, 2018

Post Italy “crisis,” are European stocks attractive? With last week’s news that Italy has formed a government, securing the country’s place in the Eurozone at least in the short term, this week we assess whether...

 

Tuesday, May 29, 2018

Small caps are having a strong year, with the Russell 2000 Index up nearly 6% year to date, versus about 2% for the S&P 500 Index. We came into this year expecting small cap outperformance, and after a slow start in early 2018 they...

 

Monday, May 21, 2018

We continue to prefer emerging market (EM) equities in tactical asset allocations. EM equities have given back strong early-year gains, pushing the MSCI EM Index into negative territory year to date on a total return basis. Many...

 

Monday, May 14, 2018

First quarter earnings season was excellent by almost any measure. The numbers were strong even without the boost from the new tax law. In this week’s commentary, we recap the outstanding near-complete first quarter earnings...

 

Monday, May 7, 2018

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited stock market cliché in history. Every year a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions flood in about the popular stock...

 

Monday, April 30, 2018

Time to check in on stock valuations. After providing our assessment of stock market fundamentals, sentiment, and technical conditions over the past few weeks, this week we turn to the last piece of our investment process: valuations....

 

Monday, April 23, 2018

There are several market myths related to certain market indicators which have the tendency to distract investors from what really matters in assessing market opportunities. We believe the overall fundamental backdrop is currently...

 

Monday, April 16, 2018

The February 2018 market correction caught many investors off guard, but the longer-term trend remains higher. This year has provided more volatility than we’ve seen in recent years, with many wondering if the movement is a sign...

 

Monday, April 9, 2018

First quarter earnings season, which kicks off April 12–13, sets up to show solid growth, buoyed by tax reform. The S&P 500 Index has grown earnings at a double-digit clip in three out of the past four quarters, a trend that is...

 

Monday, April 2, 2018

After such a calm 2017, it was reasonable to expect higher volatility in 2018, and February and March certainly delivered. As the quarter came to a close, the S&P 500 Index finally snapped a nine-quarter win streak, but we think the...

 

Monday, March 26, 2018

BEIGE BOOK SUGGESTS CONTINUED MODERATE ECONOMIC GROWTH The Federal Reserve (Fed) was in the news last week, as markets digested the March 20–21 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting statement. The outcomes of the meeting...

 

Monday, March 19, 2018

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jay Powell will preside over his first Fed policy meeting March 20–21. Although this is his first meeting as chair, Powell has been a voting member of the policy committee since 2012 and is a seasoned...

 

Monday, March 12, 2018

The February employment report crushed expectations for the number of jobs created (313,000 versus the consensus expectation of 205,000), but wage growth moderated from the surprising January levels. January’s numbers were also...

 

Monday, March 5, 2018

On March 1, 2018, President Trump announced that the United States would be imposing a 25% tariff on steel imports and a 10% tariff on aluminum imports. The S&P 500 Index fell 2% on the news before rallying over the last two hours of...

 

Monday, February 26, 2018

Fourth quarter earnings season has been outstanding. As good as it has been, perhaps most impressive is the strong guidance corporate America has provided. In response, we have raised our S&P 500 Index earnings forecast for 2018 and...

 

Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Are we out of the woods yet? After the fastest correction from a record high in the history of the S&P 500 Index, stocks staged an impressive comeback last week. The S&P 500 put together its best week since 2013, rallying more than 5%...

 

Monday, February 12, 2018

After an extraordinary two-year period of market calm, the major U.S. equity markets slipped into correction territory last week. A perfect storm of investor worries collided over the past six trading days, including inflation,...

 

Monday, February 5, 2018

Did stocks just melt-up, setting up a possible melt-down? Friday’s sharp decline, the biggest since the Brexit vote in June 2016, might have led us to forget that just a few days ago many claimed the stock market was melting up....

 

Monday, January 29, 2018

The equity market action over the past year is truly historic on many levels. It is important to recognize how unique this time frame has been and that a more volatile 2018 may be likely, and quite frankly normal. This week we will...

 

Monday, January 22, 2018

It’s early in the season, but with about 50 companies having reported fourth quarter results, S&P 500 Index earnings are tracking a 12% year over-year increase [Figure 1]. A solid 79% of the companies have bested earnings...

 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

We favor U.S. and emerging market (EM) equities for tactical global allocations. After reviewing our thoughts on the U.S. equity markets in last week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we thought we’d expand our 2018 equity...

 

Monday, January 8, 2018

We close the book on a solid 2017 for U.S. stocks while tipping our caps to a strong start to 2018. Today’s Weekly Market Commentary will provide a high-level performance recap for 2017 that we hope will be helpful for year-end...

 

Tuesday, January 2, 2018

After more than a year of political posturing and investor anticipation, Congress finally approved a $1.5 trillion tax cut, the most sweeping U.S. fiscal overhaul since 1986. The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was signed into law by...

 

Monday, December 18, 2017

The bull market continues to march higher. The S&P 500 Index is near one of the most overbought levels in history and this has many wondering how much longer the rally can continue. The longer-term technical indicators continue to look...

 

Monday, December 11, 2017

Companies remained generally upbeat during the third quarter earnings season, based on the LPL Research Corporate Beige Book Barometer. This is hardly surprising, given actual earnings results were good again and estimates of future...

 

Monday, December 4, 2017

Back to business: fundamentals to drive stock market gains in 2018. With a focus on business fundamentals and the impact of fiscal policy, the return of the business cycle means that earnings growth may have to shoulder most, if not...

 

Monday, November 20, 2017

Corporate America delivered another outstanding earnings season. S&P 500 Index earnings are tracking to an 8.2% year-over-year increase for the third quarter with just a handful of companies left to report. Excluding the impact of...

 

Monday, November 13, 2017

Last week marked the one-year anniversary of President Trump's Election Day victory. The period since the president was elected has been one of the best ever for U.S. stock markets. The 28.5% rally in the Dow Jones Industrial Average...

 

Monday, November 6, 2017

Master limited partnership (MLP) weakness appears overdone. The Alerian MLP Index has lost 9.3% in 2017 year to date, well behind the S&P 500 Index's 17.5% return and even the energy sector's 6.3% loss. More recent performance is...

 

Monday, October 30, 2017

With Halloween upon us, we continue our tradition of writing about what might scare markets. While too much fear during stressful times for markets can lead to poor investment decisions, some skepticism in strong markets can be healthy...

 

Monday, October 23, 2017

It's time to take a look at Japan. The Nikkei's 15-day win streak, its longest on record, has our attention. When thinking about Japan, many who started following markets closely in the 1980s or later know nothing else besides year...

 

Monday, October 16, 2017

This week marks the 30th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash in what has come to be known as Black Monday. The Dow plunged more than 22% on that day - the equivalent of a more than 5,000-point drop today - while markets around...

 

Monday, October 9, 2017

Third quarter earnings season gets underway this week (October 9-13) and it should be another good one. The S&P 500 Index has exceeded earnings expectations 33 straight quarters and we see no reason why the third quarter won't make it...

 

Monday, October 2, 2017

Last week’s tax proposal presented real progress. For much of this year we have been espousing what has felt like a minority view — that Republicans would reach some sort of tax agreement in early 2018. After last week,...

 

Monday, September 25, 2017

The steady bull market—now the second largest—continues. The Dow just had its third nine-day win streak of 2017, which hasn’t happened within a single year since 1955. Can the rally continue? While longer-term...

 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Growth has been on a roll. Based on the Russell 3000 style indexes, growth’s 18% year-to-date gain is 14% ahead of value’s 4% advance. Looking further back, this growth outperformance is nothing new. Over the past 10 years,...

 

Monday, September 11, 2017

After years of diminished earnings ended in the third quarter of 2016, European companies have begun seeing sustained growth in their bottom lines. Ultimately, earnings drive stock prices, but the market is always trying to look...

 

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

Investors have become increasingly concerned about the escalating North Korean threats, and understandably so. After initially shrugging off the risk, financial markets have shown increased concern over the past several weeks as the...

 

Monday, August 28, 2017

The LPL Research Corporate Beige Book Barometer — our measure of corporate sentiment that reflects an analysis of earnings conference call transcripts — shows that companies remained generally upbeat during the second...

 

Monday, August 21, 2017

We think it is a good time to consider taking a little risk off table. Two weeks ago we wrote about how stocks are probably due for a pullback given their steady advance and some of the risks facing markets. This past week (August 16),...

 

Monday, August 14, 2017

Corporate America delivered another outstanding earnings season, with double-digit earnings growth, solid upside to forecasts, and generally upbeat outlooks from corporate management teams. We have been particularly impressed with the...

 

Monday, August 7, 2017

Buy the dip? What dip? Beyond the double-digit gains in stocks this year1 and all of the all-time highs (29 for the S&P 500 Index already this year), perhaps the biggest story for the S&P 500 in 2017 is the absence of pullbacks. Here...

 

Monday, July 31, 2017

We believe small caps are becoming an increasingly attractive tactical opportunity. The primary reason for our optimism is the amount of skepticism toward the Trump administration’s ability to move its policy agenda forward,...

 

Monday, July 24, 2017

Is it time for the tax reform pivot? Earnings season will get a lot of attention this week (July 24–28) with 190 S&P 500 Index companies slated to report, as will the Federal Reserve with its two-day policy meeting concluding on...

 

Monday, July 17, 2017

Can overseas earnings continue to grow and extend the first-half rally in many international markets? That is the question investors are asking as second quarter 2017 earnings season begins. Since the financial crisis of 2008, U.S....

 

Monday, July 10, 2017

Earnings season is underway this week (July 10–14) and may be another good one, with double-digit S&P 500 Index earnings growth possible. But getting to double digits will be tougher than it was in the first quarter when S&P 500...

 

Monday, June 26, 2017

The global equity bull market is alive and well, with very broad participation. Longer-term technicals continue to look very healthy and strong, even as the bull market and economic recovery in the U.S. turns eight years old. A closer...

 

Monday, June 19, 2017

We forecast 6–9% returns for the S&P 500 Index in 2017. As investors increasingly trust that the economy can stand on its own without the need of monetary policy support, business fundamentals should take over as the primary...

 

Monday, June 12, 2017

Overseas earnings were even better than expected during the first quarter (Q1) of 2017. Global equity analysts were looking for strong earnings growth from overseas companies after years of flat to declining earnings; for the most part...

 

Monday, June 5, 2017

Master limited partnerships (MLP) appear to be a natural way to invest in the changing energy landscape. MLPs are exclusively focused on energy infrastructure in the United States and Canada. North American energy production has become...

 

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

After a very strong first quarter earnings season, we expected to see management sentiment also improve. And similar to how earnings results and the guidance from management were better than we expected, so was our measure of corporate...

 

Monday, May 22, 2017

What are we telling our investors? Focus on fundamentals. It was an up-and down week for stocks as market participants became increasingly worried that the Trump administration’s agenda was in danger following the latest news...

 

Monday, May 15, 2017

Excellent earnings season but bar will soon be raised. First quarter earnings season has been excellent by almost any measure. Results beat expectations by more than usual. The overall growth rate is very strong, even without the big...

 

Monday, May 8, 2017

“Sell in May and go away” is probably the most widely cited cliché in stock market history. May is upon us, which sparks a barrage of Wall Street commentaries, media stories, and investor questions every year about...

 

Monday, May 1, 2017

The Nasdaq Composite hit 6,000 last week, more than 17 years after first reaching 5,000 in March 2000. The road from the first break above 5,000 to the 6,000 milestone was a long one. During the internet boom in the late 1990s, moves...

 

Monday, April 24, 2017

The next four weeks will be a major turning point for European investors. France is in the middle of what is arguably its most important election cycle since World War II. The results of the second round of presidential elections, as...

 

Monday, April 17, 2017

Some significant technical trend lines are in play, so we take a closer look at market technicals and sentiment this week. The longer-term technicals continue to look strong, and an evaluation of global market breadth suggests the path...

 

Monday, April 10, 2017

The S&P 500 is poised for double-digit earnings growth in the first quarter. Earnings season gets underway this week and corporate America is poised to show a strong increase in its bottom line. The S&P 500 appears likely to produce...

 

Monday, April 3, 2017

Checking in on some “Trump trades.” The election outcome and resulting expectations for fiscal policy have caused several shifts in market leadership toward areas most sensitive to these policies. Policy is not the only...

 

Monday, March 27, 2017

The NCAA College Basketball Final Four is set. Gonzaga, North Carolina, Oregon, and South Carolina are headed to Phoenix, Arizona to determine this year’s college basketball national champion. In that spirit, following our...

 

Monday, March 20, 2017

The “Sweet 16” is set. So in the spirit of March Madness and an exciting NCAA college basketball tournament that has already brought us two shockers in second round exits by Duke and Villanova, we have compiled our...

 

Monday, March 13, 2017

Last Thursday, March 9, 2017, the bull market celebrated its eighth birthday. During that eight-year period, the S&P 500 Index tripled in value including dividends, producing a total return of 314% (19.2% annualized) while rising 250%...

 

Monday, March 6, 2017

It should come as little surprise that sentiment among corporate executives improved during the fourth quarter of 2016. We saw relatively more use of strong and positive words compared with weak and negative words in our analysis of...

 

Monday, February 27, 2017

The case for increasing European investments is getting stronger, as we evaluate the fundamentals, valuations, and to a lesser extent the technical. Throughout most of the region, we are seeing improvement in the economic data and most...

 

Tuesday, February 21, 2017

Fourth quarter earnings results are mostly in the books. It was not a blowout quarter by any stretch — earnings growth is tracking to about 7.5%, according to Thomson Reuters, only a below-average 1.5% improvement on the estimate...

 

Monday, February 13, 2017

Analyzing real estate is all about the cycles. Evaluating real estate investments, including real estate investment trusts (REIT), depends on evaluating three cycles: the economic cycle (primarily jobs), the building cycle, and the...

 

Monday, February 6, 2017

With the historically weak month of February upon us, we take a closer look at market technicals and sentiment this week. Although equities are near all-time highs, longer-term technicals continue to look very strong. We will show how...

 

Monday, January 30, 2017

Despite a strong 2016, there may still be some value in value. While value has lagged growth so far in 2017, based on the Russell style indices [Figure 1], we see several reasons to like value stocks, including accelerating economic...

 

Monday, January 23, 2017

After years of earnings recession, improving corporate earnings and relatively low valuations are making overseas investments more attractive. For the all consternation over and discussion of geopolitical and macro-economic issues,...

 

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Small caps have surged since Election Day. As shown in Figure 1, the small cap Russell 2000 Index has outperformed the large cap S&P 500 by 8.1% since November 8, 2016. The relative strength has been driven by several election-related...

 

Monday, January 9, 2017

Fourth quarter 2016 earnings season gets underway this week (January 9–13), and it looks like it will be another good one. With Alcoa no longer the unofficial kick off of the earnings season, we will consider Friday the start of...

 

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Earnings are the key to 2017 stock market outlook. S&P 500 earnings passed an important milestone in 2016, returning to growth in the third quarter after mildly contracting for several quarters during an extended mid-cycle earnings...

 

Monday, September 26, 2016

The Federal Reserve left rates steady as expected last week, but signaled it still expected to raise them before year-end. Given the weight of quarterly vs. interim meetings and the timing of the November meeting a week before the...

 

Monday, September 19, 2016

After a frustrating seven years’ worth of income regression, American households finally received a breather in 2015. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. median household income rose 5.2% in 2015, the first significant jump...

 

Monday, September 12, 2016

There is an old Wall Street motto that states “stocks take an escalator up, and an elevator down”. After an extended period of dormancy, this all-too-real adage reared its ugly head on Friday. A combination of rate hike...

 

Monday, August 29, 2016

The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference provided a little extra drama to end the week. The market digested the relative “hawkish” dialogue from Fed Chairwoman Yellen as a sign that a rate rise was now...

 

Monday, August 22, 2016

Sentiment for emerging markets may have reached a capitulation moment earlier this year. After stumbling out of the gates, emerging market debt and equity markets have come roaring back to post solid returns thus far in 2016. For...

 

Monday, August 8, 2016

Another surge in payroll additions surpassed expectations on Friday and lifted stocks to another all-time closing high. For July, Nonfarm payrolls rose by 255,000 jobs, well above the 180,000 expected by economists1. Investor sentiment...

 

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Stock prices closed at all-time highs for the second week in a row. After several attempts to reach new highs over the past year having failed, the market has now closed above the prior resistance level on the S&P 500 of 2,134 for 10...

 

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Please see the following article, “It’s Time to Think about Refinancing Your Mortgage (Again).” This is a timely piece given the record low government bond yields seen over the past few weeks. This article is not...

 

Monday, July 11, 2016

It took 285 trading days, but the S&P 500 has once again reached a new all-time high this morning, vaulting up past the previous high of 2,134. The strong jobs report on Friday and optimism that the corporate earnings recession has hit...

 

Saturday, June 25, 2016

The United Kingdom’s surprise vote to leave the European Union (EU) has potentially set in motion a period of long-lasting political and economic...

 

Monday, June 13, 2016

Global bond yields have never been lower. After a brief selloff in the middle of 2015, sovereign bond yields have rallied back with yields approaching or reaching new lows in many countries. If you thought rates were low in the U.S.,...

 

Monday, June 6, 2016

On Friday, the BLS reported a softer-than-expected 38,000 jobs added during the month of May. That was well below the 100,000 estimate and the lowest monthly total since September 2010. Many frustrated job seekers left the labor force...

 

Monday, May 23, 2016

The S&P 500 rose 0.3% last week despite a relatively "hawkish" commentary from the Federal Reserve that caught the market by surprise. Despite the gains, the index stands relatively unchanged over the last 18 months and has not made a...